Scientific Area: Ecology, Biology.

Background

Can we predict the effects of climate changes on biodiversity? Existing models are based on several weak assumptions, generally failing to account for complex interdependencies between species. Detailed multi-species models are mathematically intractable and prone to chaotic dynamics whereby small changes in parameterisation can cause massive changes in predictions. For example, modelling species distributions against biotic and abiotic constraints has proven useful in systems with two species interacting with one another, but for systems with many interacting species the problem is currently beyond capacity. An alternative is to model assemblages of species assuming they have collective behaviour. Evidence exist that community responses do exist once the unit of observation is functional groups rather than species.